The
US dollar was mixed in a week dominated by Greek headlines. US Consumer
Confidence, inflation data, GDP numbers from the US and the UK and most
importantly speeches from Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen’s stand
out. These are the major events on our Forex calendar. Here is an outlook
in the highlights of this week.
The Greek drama remained
at the center of attention especially as Germany opposed the bailout
extension proposed by Greece, but there seems to be light at the end
of the tunnel. From the US: jobless claims
release came out better than expected but a disappointment
came from the Philly Fed index The
FOMC minutes release was somewhat dovish,
but also stale, giving more emphasis to Yellen’s speech. In the UK, employment
numbers and meeting minutes were positive, but retail sales
disappointedand limited cable’s gains. The BOJ hasn’t moved
after weak GDP data, while the loonie suffered
sliding oil prices. The Aussie and kiwi enjoyed upbeat data.
Updates:
§ Feb 23, 11:34: Greece not a
sure deal: The deal on Greece put together during the latter
stages of Friday gave the single currency a lift into the...
1.
German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 9:00. German business
moral edged up for the third straight month in January, reaching
106.7 from 105.5 in December, in line with market forecast. The weak euro
boosted exports and is expected to continue its decent amid the fresh bond
buying program initiated by the ECB to spur growth. Stronger German growth will
help the Euro-area out of its sluggish state. German business is expected
to rise further to107.4.
2.
Mario Draghi speaks: Tuesday, 14:00,
Wednesday 14:00. ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak in Frankfurt
and in Brussles before the European Parliament. Draghi refrained from
addressing the Grexit scenario, saying it made no sense to speculate on Greece
abandoning the euro zone. Draghi may refer to the Greek negotiations, the
decision to provide more ELA
to Greece and the massive QE
decision. It will certainly be interesting.
3.
US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday,
15:00, . U.S. consumer
confidence rose to a seven-year high in January, reaching 102.9
from an upwardly revised 93.1 in December. Optimism increased about the labor
market and economic conditions. Analysts expected a small rise to 95.1.
Responders were also positive on short-term outlook and wage growth. Low inflation
due to gasoline prices also boosted consumers’ spirits. Consumer confidence is
expected to reach 99.6 this time.
4.
Janet Yellen testifies: Tuesday, 15:00 and
Wednesday at 15:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the
House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC. Yellen may address the
rate hike issue, the weak inflation trend and the strengthening labor market.
Market volatility is expected. We have seen how the meeting minutes
were dovish, countering the relatively
hawkish statement. Now we will get a real time update, with
questions and answers as well.
5.
US New Home Sales: Wednesday, 15:00. New home sales
increased sharply in December to a seasonally adjusted
annual rate of 481,000, following 452,000 in the previous month. The 11.6%
climb indicates an improvement from 2014. Stronger labor market and better
economic conditions have facilitated the positive trend of home acquisitions.
Furthermore, sales of existing homes rose 2.4% in December to a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million. New home sales are predicted to shrink to
447,000 in January.
6.
Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 1:45.
As China emerges from the long New Year celebrations, the independent indicator
from HSBC is set to give us an updated picture for the world’s second
largest economy. In January, the number stood on 49.7 points, just under the 50
point mark separating growth and contraction. A tick down to 49.6 is on the
cards. This has a particular impact on Australia, but also on the whole
world.
7.
UK GDP data: Thursday, 9:30. The first estimate of GDP growth
from the UK showed a growth rate of 0.5% in Q4, less than
expected. This will likely be confirmed in the second release. The growth
rate reflects a slowdown from previous quarters which saw strong growth.
Elections are coming in May and this publication has political importance as
well.
8.
US Inflation data: Thursday, 13:30. U.S.
consumer prices registered their biggest fall in December,
dropping 0.4%, the largest decline since December 2008, following a 0.3%
decline in the prior month. On a yearly base, CPI gained a mere 0.8%, the
weakest reading since October 2009. The continuous decline diminishes the
possibility of a rate hike. Meanwhile, Core prices without food and energy
costs remained unchanged in December. In the 12 months through December, core
CPI increased 1.6%, the smallest gain since February. U.S. consumer price index
is expected to decline 0.6% while core CPI is forecasted to rise 0.1%.
9.
US Durable Goods Orders: Thursday,
13:30. Capital goods
orders plunged 3.4% in Decemberamid slowing global growth and
low crude oil prices. Core orders excluding aircraft, dropped 0.8% in December
while expected to gain 0.5%. The strong dollar also held back new investments.
Durable goods orders took a step back in the fourth quarter of 2014 after
strong gains in the previous two quarters. Durable Goods Orders are expected to
gain 1.7% while core orders are expected to add 0.6%.
10.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday,
13:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits fell 21,000 last
week to 283,000, indicating a positive momentum in the US labor market.
Analysts expected claims to reach 293,000. The four-week moving average of
claims, a more stable measure of labor market trends fell 6,500 to 283,250 last
week. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 285,000 this week.
11.
US GDP data: Friday, 13:30. After a
strong 5% annualized growth rate in Q3, the initial
number for Q4 showed a gain of only 2.6%. And, it’s expected to
get worse now, with a downgrade of growth to only 2.1%, in a “payback quarter”.
*All
times are GMT.
Source: http://www.forexcrunch.com/
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